When will used prices crash?

Why have prices risen on used vans?

Since summer 2020 used prices on most if not all vans have increased to the delights of many owners and sellers. There are numbers reasons.
Demand has outstripped supply.
– Lack of raw materials to build vehicles
– Fire at semi conductor factory in Japan that makes the ECU for most vehicles
– Flood in Southern Germany where Ford makes its gear boxes.
– Workers not able to work on production lines due to covid
– Factories unable to find workers
– Generous government loans and grants
– Increase in demand due to camper conversions and staycations.
– Increase in demand for delivery vans for home deliveries.
– Even the Suez Canal played its share in backing container ships

How much have prices risen 2020 – 2021

Using a 2019 VW Transporter Kombi 150 Highline as an example with 20,000 miles on the clock this was worth say £22k In January 2020. A year and a half later later in July 2021 its £25,000. We would normally have expected the value to have been somewhere in the region of 18K by now. As you can see there is a dip in August on this but its too early to see if this pattern of decline continues.

When will prices fall?

This really is the million dollar question. When will prices fall on used vans, how fast and by how much. Everyone agrees prices will fall but no one is really sure when. Lets look at demand
Demand is falling and supply increasing.
– Camper convertors will see decreased demand as the world and plane travel opens back up at end of 2021 which will mean a glut of used camper vans. Camper conversion companies will be competing with large stocks of used camper vans ready built and owners for whom the novelty has worn off.
– Courier firms. Lack of drivers means a slow down of purchases. We are not quite at driverless vans yet!
– Availability of new vans is increasing.
– Customers who have factory ordered new vans will when they realise their payments will rise £150 a month as the can no longer get a “Covid 2021 Price” for their van
– ECUs are once again being manufactured
– Workers are returning to factories double or even triple jabbed
– Raw materials are flowing once again
– COVID Campsite prices will drive people abroad, as will the sheer volume of Traffic in places such as Devon and Cornwall.
– The end of Grants and loans. In fact for many its time to replay these loans.

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